Brazilian Economy

So that the economy officially grows foreseen 1% for the government, the growth of the last trimester would have of being of the 7% order. The surprising result gave alento to the perspectives of the economy contraction technique contraction, or at least was until the March end. This situation is sufficiently negative. When the country is in contraction, increases the unemployment, what it tends to reduce the income of the families and the level of consumption of the society, initiating a vicious circle: little job, little income, little consumption, fall of the economic growth, little job Happily, the Brazilian economy did not enter in this vicious circle, mainly because the consumption of the families, after to fall in the last trimester of 2008, came back to grow in the first trimester of this year. The recovery of the familiar consumption, that answers for about 60% of the GIP, helped to reduce the intensity of the contraction in the first trimester and certainly it must help the country to leave the contraction from as the semester, with possibility, also, to occur growth of the Brazilian economy in 2009, that it must if to point out between 0% and 1%.Preocupante in the presented numbers is the strong fall of the investments. The quarterly fall was the occured greater since the beginning of the series in this comparison base, in 1996. The fall is explained by the high levels of industrial supplies in the 2008 end and by the reduction of the sales, that the idle capacity of the companies increased. With supplies and extended idle capacity, no entrepreneur thinks about investing. With the fall of the supplies and recovery of the sales, pointed for the data most recent, it is possible that the industries come back to invest in the magnifying of the installed capacity. However, such investment must only be retaken throughout as the semester.